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Winter is Coming: German Economy Doomed in Wake of Anti-Russian Sanctions, Scholars Say_我的网站

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一 | While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。　　上周末，长存控股科创板IPO申请正式获上交所受理。招股书显示，公司发行前的股东共计29家，湖北地方国资、国家级基金、银行系AIC（金融资产投资公司）、市场化创投以及员工持股平台齐聚一堂。　　湖北地方国资是压舱石，共计5家主体。

二 | 湖北长晟持股26.54%、芯飞科技持股25.35%，位列前两大股东，叠加光谷产投、国芯基金、长江产业集团，地方国资为企业早期建设、产能扩张提供坚实保障。

三 | 　　大基金一期、二期合计持股超23%，搭配中网投共3只国家级基金。

四 | 作为国内半导体产业最重要的国家级产业投资载体，大基金自长存控股发展早期便深度参与。中网投则从数字产业维度，进一步完善国家级资本的布局矩阵。　　5家国有大行AIC集体现身股东名单，农银投资、建信投资、交银投资、中银资产1号、工融基金，每家持股均为0.61%。　　资料显示，2024年，长存控股的财务情况虽有好转，但仍难言乐观，当年6月，公司完成第八次增资，五大行AIC合计出资约39亿元。交银投资相关人士表示，公司走的是市场化债转股的“发股还债”模式——资金到账后，企业须用于偿还存量金融债务，以此实现降杠杆。　　除银行系资本外，上海国有资产经营有限公司作为异地地方国资参与布局；9家市场化VC/PE错落布局，闻名投资、华恒系列基金、炬达二号等机构带来市场化产业资源。6个智芯系列员工持股平台，完成核心技术与管理团队的利益绑定。　　整体来看，长存控股无单一控股股东，属于多元共治股权架构。地方国资托底产业落地，国家大基金主攻技术突破，银行AIC补充长期股权资本，市场化创投赋能产业资源，员工持股绑定核心人才，多类主体各有分工。（文章来源：东方财富研究中心）。